Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Baseball America and the Yankees Top 10

Baseball America released its top 10 prospects for the Yankees organization yesterday and it is as follows:

1. Austin Jackson
2. Jesus Montero
3. Andrew Brackman
4. Austin Romine
5. Dellin Betances
6. Zach McAllister
7. Afredo Aceves
8. Phil Coke
9. Mark Melancon
10. Bradley Suttle

I don't necessarily agree with Jackson getting the top spot over Montero, but I can't really complain either. He played at a higher level and is still only in what, his third year of full baseball? But Montero is going to be a beast no matter where he ends up (1B or C) and Jackson is going to be contributing full-time in the near-future.

Betances over McAllister = no for me. Betances is constantly trying to stay healthy while battling his mechanics for control, albeit he straightened that out in the second half this year. Yes, Betances has the ability to strike out anybody. He also has the ability to walk anybody and hit anybody. I think McAllister is underhyped because he (in all likelihood) will never be a #1 or #2, as he projects more like a #3 or #4 and an innings eater. But his chance of actually getting there, from what I've read and the stats, seems to be much better than Betances. I've got no problem with Betances on the list, but I think McAllister deserves more respect.

I don't understand why Aceves is on there and I'm still not sure if its a good thing or a bad thing that a guy they picked out of the Mexican league last year cracks the Yanks' top ten prospects.

But Melancon below Coke? If they're factoring Coke's starter status into the equation, maybe I could agree. But then if they're also choosing to include what he did as a reliever this year in the bigs, I can't. His stuff plays up a bunch when he's relieving. If they believe that's his final destination, and not a starter, Melancon has to be above him. This is all before factoring in age, where Melancon has an advantage (Melancon, 23 - Coke, 25). Melancon is a legit closing prospect and the most likely candidate to replace Mo should the time come, while Coke looks like a LOOGy.

I would've gone with Brandon Laird over Bradley Suttle as well, but like Jackson vs. Montero, really can't complain either way. Suttle has an interesting bat at 2B, but Lairds got monster power while still having a significantly lower K% than Suttle (19% to 25%). Laird slugged very slightly higher than Montero (I know it sounds weird to compare him to a kid 2 years younger, but 20 in A ball isn't bad), while batting 50 or so points lower. Hopefully that gives you an idea of what the kid is capable of.

This list should be pretty similar next year. I think Aceves is the only lock to lose it next year. Jackson could (if he gets brought up early enough, but I don't think its going to happen), Coke could (only if they decide hes a reliever and make him the lefty option in the pen) and Melancon could (but they probably want him to see some time in AAA before a call up, in which case, he won't get in 50IP). Unless Brackman, Betances or McAllister start Joba-ing everybody down on the farm, I don't think lose prospect status (Brackman might get a September call up but nothing that would pull him off the list). Romine, Montero and Suttle are probably 2-3 years out, so no threat there. Unless some of the young draftees (Lassiter, Marshall) and international guys go wild, this list should look about the same.